At our Oxford Club Chairman’s Circle conference at The Ritz-Carlton in Naples last week, I noted a decided optimism about the outlook for the bond market. This enthusiasm is almost certainly misplaced.

We’re at the tail end of the biggest 30-year rally in bonds the nation has ever seen. Recall that three decades ago, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker pushed the prime rate all the way up to 21.5% to squelch inflation. Long-term Treasury yields reached 16%. But from that pinnacle, long-term yields have plummeted to around 3% today. Bond prices have soared accordingly.

It isn’t just unlikely that today’s bond buyers will see annual double-digit returns going forward, it’s mathematically impossible. And yet I sense that many fixed-income investors don’t understand this.

It’s not unusual to meet an investor who has plunked money in a bond fund because “its long-term track record is excellent.” They don’t seem to realize that it’s also irrelevant. Never has the old saw, “Past returns are no guarantee of future results,” been more apropos.

This doesn’t mean you should avoid bonds altogether, of course. But if you’re going to buy bonds, now more than ever you need to be smart about it. Here’s what you should do:

1. Ladder your maturities. You should buy two-year, five-year and 10-year bonds. If rates go up – as they will eventually – your bond prices will fall, temporarily. But you will get your principal back at maturity and be able to reinvest your principal at higher rates. And paltry as bond yields are today, they still beat the heck out of the 0.05% that the average money market fund is paying.
2. Keep a close eye on expenses. In the world of fixed-income investing, keeping a Scrooge-like eye on expenses is essential. Why? Because it’s difficult to work magic in the button-down world of fixed-income investing. Managers rarely earn their fees. And 12b-1 fees can eat away at your returns like termites in an antebellum house. My advice is to stick with individual bonds, Vanguard funds (whose expenses are one-sixth of the industry average) and low-cost ETFs.
3. Avoid leveraged bond funds. Ever wonder how bond yields can be so low and yet the yield on your closed- or open-end bond fund is higher, even after expenses? Open your eyes. Unless you’re holding junk bonds, your fund manager is using leverage, the fixed-income equivalent of buying stocks on margin. By borrowing cheap, he or she is leveraging the portfolio to add yield. This works just fine while bond prices are flat or rising. But when bond prices fall – as they will when interest rates rise – these shareholders will take a shellacking. Consider yourself forewarned.

Some fixed-income investors tell me they feel safe for now since Bernanke has pledged to keep interest rates low through 2014. Think again. The Fed has only announced its intention to keep rates low. (Future economic conditions could quickly change that.) The Fed is also keeping long-term bond yields artificially low by buying these instruments to goose the economy.

Inflation could tick up. The Fed could raise rates and/or quit buying long-term Treasuries. In the end, the Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates, but not bond yields and prices.

Know this. Understand it. And act accordingly. Bond investors today should be in a defensive posture, capturing higher yields than what’s available in cash instruments, but prepared for that point in the future when bond yields will rise and prices will fall.

Good Investing,

Alexander Green

At a conference here at The Ritz-Carlton in Naples, Florida, I heard an increasingly common question. An attendee asked me how anyone could feel good about investing in stocks with economic and political prospects so bleak.

I reminded him that men and women have been saying that the world is going to hell in a hand basket for, oh, the last 5,000 years or so. (As the old proverb says, the dogs bark but the caravan moves on.) It’s important to remember that so much pessimism exists today because the national media delivers a terribly skewed view of the world we live in.

As I have written in this column before, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on equities, including low inflation, zero interest rates, rapidly developing overseas markets, cheap valuations and all-time record corporate profits.

But that’s just in the short term. There are even better reasons to be bullish longer term. Understanding this will make you a better investor.

Consider, for example, Matt Ridley’s book The Rational Optimist. Ridley, a scientist, journalist and professor at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York, points out that the world is actually improving dramatically and the pace is quickening, thanks to rising personal and economic freedom and evolving technologies, medicine and trade practices. Yes, the world is far from perfect, but it is getting better.

Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler strike a similar note in their new book Abundance: Why the Future Will Be Much Better Than You Think. In an adaptation published in the February 13 issue of Forbes, they point out that the trend isn’t nearly as dire as many seem to believe. Quite the opposite, in fact:

“During the past century child mortality decreased by 90% while the average human life span increased by 100%. Food is cheaper and more plentiful than ever (groceries cost 13 times less today than in 1870). Poverty has declined more in the past 50 years than the previous 500. In fact, adjusted for inflation, incomes have tripled in the past 50 years. Even Americans living under the poverty line today have access to a telephone, toilet, television, running water, air-conditioning, and a car. Go back 150 years and the richest robber barons could have never dreamed of such wealth.

“Nor are these changes restricted to the developed world. In Africa today a Masai warrior on a cellphone has better mobile communications than the President of the United States did 25 years ago; if he’s on a smart phone with Google, he has access to more information than the President did just 15 years ago, with a feast of standard features: watch, stereo, camera, video camera, voice recorder, GPS tracker, video teleconferencing equipment, a vast library of books, films, games, music. Just 20 years ago these same goods and services would have cost over $1 million …

“Right now all information-based technologies are on exponential growth curves: They’re doubling in power for the same price every 12 to 24 months. This is why an $8 million supercomputer from two decades ago now sits in your pocket and costs less than $200. This same rate of change is also showing up in networks, sensors, cloud computing, 3-D printing, genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics and dozens more industries.”

Investors everywhere should familiarize themselves with these points of view. After all, you’ve heard the doomsayers (again and again). You owe it to yourself to hear the other side of the story.

Looking at broad trends and exciting new developments provides a powerful antidote to the fear generated by relentless media negativity. Plus, it gives you the knowledge and confidence necessary to capitalize on the hundreds of great investment opportunities that exist in today’s fast-moving financial markets.

The world truly is your oyster … but only if you have the optimism to see it that way.

Good Investing,

Alexander Green

by Alexander Green, Investment U Chief Investment Strategist
Monday, January 09, 2012: Issue #1682

Not long ago, my colleague Mark Skousen asked a roomful of attendees at an investment conference how many of them owned gold. Virtually every hand in the room went up.

“And how many of you have ever sold any of your gold?”

Virtually every hand in the room came down.

For many investors, gold is their “forever investment,” the one asset they never plan to sell. That could be a mistake, a big one.

I can assure you that the institutional investors who have bid gold up the last few years consider the metal a “hot date,” not a long-term marriage. And that bodes ill for prices in the short to medium term.

Yes, I was bearish on gold a year ago. But I’m more bearish on it today. After all, the trend is your friend.

True, gold went up in the first half of 2011 and didn’t peak until August. But take a look at a five-month chart.

It’s not a pretty picture.

Of course, gold is hard to value under the best of circumstances. It has very few industrial uses. It generates no earnings, pays no dividends, accrues no interest and provides no rental income. That means the best any of us can do is guess where it’s headed next.

So why am I guessing it will be lower? Let me count the ways:

1. Gold is a wonderful inflation hedge. But the metal is up more than five-fold over the last 12 years and inflation is still not a problem. Is it not conceivable that inflation could tick up and gold – having already discounted this – moves lower?

2. Gold is a great performer in an economic crisis. But we already had the crisis. It ended in 2008. Things are getting slowly better, not worse.

3. With gold prices still in the stratosphere and the value of the rupee falling, India – the world’s biggest consumer of gold – is likely to experience a pronounced drop-off in demand this year. Not good.

4. Gold is now well above the marginal cost of production. New mines are opening and old mines are re-opening. It’s Economics 101. Greater supply depresses prices.

5. If you believe the gargantuan debt load that Washington has run up will cause gold to rally from here, you may want to think again. Japan’s debt load as a percentage of GDP is more than twice ours and the end result has been disinflation, not inflation. Why will it be different this time? Indeed, George Soros and several other major speculators are openly forecasting outright deflation. That would not be good for gold.

6. Note that while gold ended the year up in 2011, gold shares dropped 16%. Already, equity investors are taking a dim view of the sustainability of gold’s advance. I think they’re right.

7. Investment demand for gold has soared in recent years. Seven years ago, it made up just 16% of total demand. Today it’s more than 40%. But hedge fund managers who piled into gold, unlike Mom and Pop, have no emotional commitment to the metal. These are hair-trigger traders. When the primary trend turns unequivocally south, you can bet these guys will dump gold faster than a freshman girlfriend.

I’m not suggesting that anyone bail out of gold. You should hold at least 5% of your liquid assets in gold and gold stocks, and perhaps more. But if you’re one of those folks I meet who has 30%, 50% … even 80% in the barbarous relic, you’re really sitting at the roulette table at 3 AM.

No one can say unequivocally that the bet won’t pay off. But there could be a steep price to pay if it doesn’t. The last time gold was a bubble, investors were down more than 60% two decades later.

As Mark Twain said, “History may not repeat itself. But it rhymes.”

Good Investing,

Alexander Green

by Alexander Green, Investment U’s Chief Investment Strategist
Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Six weeks ago, I wrote a column advising short-term speculators to sell their gold.

Since that time, the metal has drifted lower. But the brunt of the decline is likely still ahead.

As I’ve said before, gold is difficult to value under the best of circumstances. It pays no interest, has no earnings, provides no rent. What gold will be worth next week or next month is whatever buyers will pay for it at the time. And that, in technical terms, is a guess.

I’ve heard gold bugs make their case. Some are based on emotion. Others are based on political fantasies about the Federal Reserve turning us into the Weimar Republic circa 1923, or modern-day Zimbabwe.

What I rarely hear them talking about is pedestrian stuff like supply and demand…

When Buyers Become Sellers, Look Out Below

Billions of dollars have been spent building gold mines over the last few years, so it’s not inconceivable that supply could begin to outstrip demand.

Of course, demand itself is fickle.

In 2005, investors made up just 16% of total demand for gold. Today, it’s more than 40%. Gold ETFs have taken in more than $50 billion since 2004.

What will happen to the price of gold when these buyers become net sellers, as many will when it becomes clear that the party is over? Paulson & Co., a hedge fund, now holds more than $4 billion in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). I wouldn’t want to be standing in front of his eventual liquidation. And, like most hedge fund managers, Paulson is not a “buy-and-hold” investor.

Some bulls justify buying gold at these levels because it briefly traded at more than $800 an ounce in 1980. And they say if you simply adjust for inflation, gold should be trading at $2,300 today.

That’s weak. Here’s why…

Don’t Be Blinded by the Gold Light

Gold badly underperformed inflation – not to mention stocks, bonds, real estate and burying your money in a hole – for 20 years after 1980. Why is it suddenly destined to catch up now?

Or look at it another way: On August 25, 1999, gold traded at $252.55 an ounce. Adjusting for inflation, gold should be trading at $339.65 an ounce today.

Granted, my starting point is the 30-year-low. But then, a calculation based on the 1980 high is just as arbitrary.

It’s understandable that gold spiked during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Gold is an excellent barometer of investor anxiety. But that crisis is over. The recession – defined as two straight quarters of negative GDP growth – ended in June 2009. And inflation is running at just 1.2%.

So why is gold still in the stratosphere?

What to Do With Your Gold Holdings Now

Yes, I know the price of food, gasoline, health care and college tuition are all going up much faster than the official inflation rate. But let’s also concede that the price of cars, computers, appliances, electronics, furniture and, not insignificantly, homes – the biggest asset most consumers will ever buy – is coming decidedly down.

Experienced investors know that after an asset has made a huge run, the little guy – forever a day late and a dollar short – starts clamoring for a piece of the action. At that point, the bloom is off the rose. It’s too late to buy and generally high time to sell.

Take my old neighbors, Sam and Brian. They lost their shirts in Internet stocks in 2000-2002. Now they’re stuck with huge negative equity in Florida condos that they bought pre-construction – a “no-brainer” in 2005.

So what are they doing with their rapidly vanishing capital today?

You guessed it. Now that gold is up five-fold in the last 10 years and three-fold in the last five years, they’re convinced that a big move lies just ahead.

Maybe. But what’s certain is that one lies just behind.

My advice? Keep your gold bullion and blue-chip mining stocks that you own as an inflation-hedge or part of your long-term asset allocation.

But if you’re counting on gold to dash higher, note that the last time investors bought into a gold mania it took more than 25 years for them to break even – not counting inflation.

As Mark Twain famously said, “History may not repeat itself. But it rhymes.”

Good investing,

Alexander Green

by Alexander Green, Investment U’s Chief Investment Strategist
Thursday, October 28, 2010: Issue #1376

Six months ago, I made a strong case for buying inflation-adjusted Treasuries, better known as TIPS.

I suggested that Washington’s massive fiscal stimulus, plus record-low interest rates, might ultimately prove inflationary.

So far, they haven’t. But investors clearly feel that inflation – the thief that robs us all – is just around the corner.

Look at the traditional inflation harbinger – gold. The metal has hit one new high after another this year.

TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) have soared, too. In fact, they’ve rallied so far that for the first time ever, five-year TIPS were sold at auction earlier this week with a yield of minus 0.5%.

That’s right… they guarantee a negative yield. Yet investors are gobbling them up anyway.

What’s going on here? Let’s start at the beginning…

The Inside Track on TIPS

Here are some Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) characteristics…

• They pay interest every six months, just like a regular Treasury bond.
• Unlike traditional bonds, your principal increases each year by the amount of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). The semi-annual interest payments also increase by the amount of inflation.
• The interest you receive is exempt from state and local income taxes (but not federal).
• TIPS are less volatile than traditional bonds.
• TIPS are excellent diversifiers.

But can TIPS possibly be worth holding, even when they sport a negative yield?

Perhaps for long-term investors (as I’ll explain in a moment). But not for short-term traders. Here’s why…

Think Twice Before Buying TIPS for the Short-Term

Current yields of less than zero on TIPS are due to rock-bottom Treasury rates and fears of higher inflation just over the horizon.

It’s simple math. Five-year Treasuries are yielding a paltry 1.2%. Given the weak dollar and Washington’s addiction to spending, traders and investors are betting that inflation will run at 1.7% or more.

That makes five-year TIPS just as attractive as five-year bonds, since 1.7% minus the 0.5% negative yield equals 1.2%.

Inflation or Disinflation?

Of course, the financial markets are a bit schizophrenic right now. Inflation protectors like gold and TIPS have rallied. But so have inflation-sensitive investments like investment grade bonds. Investors can’t seem to decide whether we’re in for inflation or disinflation.

And of course, nobody knows for sure. But TIPS have rallied by 10% over the last year, with no uptick in inflation. If the folks betting on disinflation – or its more severe cousin, outright deflation – are right, these bonds could undergo a serious price adjustment, giving investors a haircut in the process.

TIPS investors aren’t just guaranteed negative yields right now. They may also experience a negative total return for several years in a row.

So why shouldn’t long-term investors sell them outright?

How to Tackle TIPS if You’re a Long-Term or Short-Term Investor

Some would be prudent to do just that. The only catch is this: What if the inflation hawks are right?

If they are, TIPS will give a higher future return than traditional fixed-income investments – and with the highest degree of safety. (They are, after all, obligations of the U.S. government.)

True, there are other inflation alternatives. But gold has already quintupled over the last decade. And that other famous inflation hedge – your home – is likely to remain mired in quicksand for years to come, thanks to the overhang of foreclosures and other unsold properties.

The bottom line is this:

• Long-term investors – those with a time horizon of five years or more – should hold onto their TIPS.
• But traders and other investors with a shorter time horizon should probably give them a miss.

History shows that once an asset class turns hot – whether it’s stocks, bonds, gold, real estate or TIPS – it rarely delivers the kind of returns it did when it was heating up.

This time could be different, of course. But that’s how investors always rationalize their investments at the top.

The oldest advice is still the best: Caveat emptor.

Alexander Green

by Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist
Monday, October 18, 2010: Issue #1368

We’re making money hand over fist – locking in significant double- and triple-digit gains – in our Oxford Trading Portfolio, Seven Deadly Sins Portfolio, Oxford All-Star Portfolio, Momentum Portfolio, Insider Portfolio and our New Frontier Portfolio.

Yet I still talk to investors every day who tell me they’re completely out of the market. When I ask them why, they always give me some variation of the same answer: They just can’t take the risk.

These investors need to wake up and smell the java. There has never been – and never will be – a time when stocks aren’t volatile and the economic outlook isn’t uncertain.

Yet nothing gives a better return over time than great stocks…

Four Wealth-Building Barriers

What these investors may not realize is that by sitting out the stock market rally, they’re taking four significantly greater risks:

• Purchasing Power Risk

Low inflation isn’t a problem now, but it’s like having a slow leak in your swimming pool. At some point, you’re likely to jump off the diving board and hit concrete.

Even low inflation is slowly draining your purchasing power. You may feel safe sitting in cash, but you’re virtually guaranteeing that inflation will outpace your asset growth. And thanks to our gargantuan budget deficit, we may face sharply higher inflation in the years ahead.

• Interest Rate Risk

Ben Bernanke and Co. took short-term interest rates to near zero. The average money market account now pays a microscopic .05%. (It will take your money more than 1,400 years to double at that rate.)

And if the Fed decides to raise rates by even one point, it will knock 3% off the value of your Treasury bonds, essentially erasing a year’s worth of returns. Bonds are not a great bet right now.

• Timing Risk

Every market timer would like to believe that he or she will be in the market for the rallies and out for the corrections. Never did the phrase “more easily said than done” ring truer.

I still talk to investors every week who are waiting for the market’s “final capitulation.” Final capitulation? The Dow is up 70% from the lows of last March. This is a bull market by any definition. Yes, it will end at some point. But if you didn’t catch the lows last year, what are the odds you’ll pick the top of this bull, which may last for years?

• Shortfall Risk

This is your single greatest investment risk – the possibility that you won’t have enough money to reach your financial goals or support yourself the way you’d like in retirement.

Talk to elderly investors who are counting nickels and the story is virtually always the same. They didn’t save enough and (depending on personality type) they were either too conservative or too aggressive with their money. It’s a sad thing when your golden years are tin-plated and it’s way too late for a do-over.

So what’s the solution?

Think Ahead and Grow Rich

In short, don’t let the perma-bears and the gloom-and-doomers talk you out of achieving your financial goals.

Yes, you should own some gold, some bonds, even some real estate. But if you don’t own stocks, where are you going to generate the returns you need to live the lifestyle you want?

No one can say where the stock market will be 15 days or 15 weeks from now. But think about your retirement. Fifteen years from now, the market will almost certainly be a lot higher.

So stop fretting over the short-term outlook and start putting money to work in great stocks to meet your long-term goals. Financial freedom is about managing investment risk… not avoiding it.

Good investing,

Alexander Green

by Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist
Tuesday, June 1, 2010: Issue #1271

U.S. Treasury bonds are the safest investment in the world.

However, that doesn’t mean they can’t be dangerous. Far from it.

Yet a few days ago, The Wall Street Journal reported that, “Long-dated Treasury securities are now the most favored financial assets for global investors fleeing the eurozone’s debt crisis.”

Talk about jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire…

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not one of those end-of-the-worlders who expect the U.S. government to default on its sovereign obligations. That won’t happen.

It wouldn’t even be necessary. After all, history shows that governments always prefer to inflate their way out of a debt crisis by cranking up the printing presses instead. That way they can achieve a de facto debt reduction simply by devaluing the currency.

If you’ve seen the photographs of German citizens hauling wheelbarrows full of cash into the bank during the days of the Weimar Republic, you know what I’m talking about.

Of course, I don’t expect inflation like that. And neither should you.

But what kind of inflation does an investor expect who loans his money to the government for 30 years at a rate of just 4.1%?

Why U.S. Treasury Bonds Could Bulldoze Your Portfolio

That 4.1% figure is the current yield on the long end – and it’s a bet that has a little upside potential and a whole world of downside risk. Why?

Imagine a seesaw with interest rates and inflation on one end and bond prices on the other. If inflation goes down, bond prices go up. And vice-versa.

But how far down can rates go on the long end? Unless we have the sort of deflationary environment that Japan suffered in the 1990s, the appreciation potential here is minimal.

On the other hand, if inflation rears its ugly head, long bonds will get clobbered. And the worse inflation gets, the worse these bonds will do.

I realize that inflation is not an immediate threat. Technology and deregulation have brought costs down over the past decade. And even oil prices have moderated lately.

But if the bond market gets even a whiff of higher inflation, these bonds will drop like a stone. And I’m betting that investors who weren’t around during the early 1980s – and even many who were – don’t realize it.

They are so busy patting themselves on the back for eliminating default risk – and picking up a 4% yield versus next-to-nothing on the short end – that they are forgetting about interest rate risk: the risk that higher inflation will send long yields soaring and bond prices crashing.

Don’t Let the Government Trick You into Speculating

Seth Klarman, President of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston that manages $22 billion, says the U.S. government is inadvertently provoking its citizens into taking very bad risks right now.

How?

“By holding short-term interest rates near zero, the government is basically tricking the population into going long on just about every security except cash, at the price of almost certainly not getting an adequate return for the risks they are running. People can’t stand earning 0% on their money, so the government is forcing everyone in the investing public to speculate.”

Of course, most people aren’t exactly in a speculating mood right now.

So what are they doing? They’re buying super safe long-term Treasuries and earning over 4%.

Except that’s not a safe investment – as many will eventually learn to their chagrin.

Good investing,

Alexander Green

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by Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist
Monday, May 10, 2010: Issue #1256

Two weeks ago, I wrote a column recommending Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as protection against potential inflation down the road.

It prompted a flood of questions and challenges. I want to address those, but let me start by briefly re-stating my case:

1. Unprecedented government spending – including $108 trillion in unfunded liabilities for social security, Medicare and new universal healthcare benefits – is putting the nation at risk.
2. With interest rates near zero, the Federal Reserve cannot take one traditional step – lowering short-term rates – to revitalize a weakened economy.
3. In a severe economic downturn or double-dip recession, politicians – with the reluctant assistance of the Fed – could opt to spend even more massively to try to jump-start the economy.
4. The result could be stagflation: slow growth with higher inflation. (And although we haven’t seen it here in almost 30 years, perhaps even hyper-inflation.)

I don’t know what the odds of this happening are – and neither does anyone else. But I think investors would be foolish not to at least consider the possibility…

Inflation or Deflation? Hedge Your Bets This Way…

Respondents who disagreed generally fell into one of two camps…

• They either believed that deflation is more likely than inflation.
• They thought inflation was likely, but since Congress will almost certainly be the culprit, they don’t want to reward the mischief-makers by buying any kind of government securities.

Let me handle the former objection first: Is deflation more likely than inflation? Perhaps. No one can say. You should probably own a good slug of Triple-A insured municipal bonds just in case. (Because future tax rates are almost certainly going higher.)

By all means, make some plans for a deflationary scenario. But plan for the possibility of inflation, too. This is what diversification is all about. Hedge your bets.

But why use TIPS as your hedge, rather than a traditional inflation hedge like precious metals? In my view, you should use both. But remember, gold and silver are less than perfect hedges.

They have both performed exceptionally well over the last 10 years, for example. Gold has more than quadrupled. Silver has done even better. But the 20 years before that were an unmitigated disaster.

But no matter whether inflation is low or high, TIPS will protect you. How?

The Benefits of Buying Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

• Regular Interest Payments: TIPS pay interest every six months, just like a regular Treasury bond. But unlike traditional bonds, your principal increases each year by the amount of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). Semi-annual interest payments also increase by the amount of inflation.
• Tax Benefits: The interest you receive is exempt from state and local income taxes (but not federal). TIPS are also less volatile than traditional bonds and are also excellent diversifiers.

There are three good ways to buy inflation-protected Treasuries:

1. Directly: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/tips/res_tips_buy.htm
2. Through the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX).
3. Through its ETF equivalent – the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (NYSE: TIP).

I recommend TIPS for two primary reasons…

1. I’m not a moralist trying to claim the high ground. I’m just trying to protect myself, my family and my heirs from potentially destructive hyper-inflation. I don’t want to remain true to my free-market principles only to see the net worth I’ve accumulated over a lifetime torpedoed.
2. There is no private-sector alternative here. For good reason, private and public companies don’t want to leave themselves vulnerable to sky-high interest and principal payments down the road if inflation takes off. So they don’t issue inflation-protected securities. That makes TIPS the only game in town.

I know that some libertarians and laissez-faire capitalists will refuse to buy Treasury securities, period. But as I’ve pointed out, other inflation hedges sometimes don’t work. So there is no small risk taking another approach.

In sum, there is only one investment that guarantees a return that exceeds inflation in the years ahead: TIPS.

And in my view, that makes them an indispensable part of your portfolio.

Good investing,

Alexander Green

Editor’s Note:It’s beaten the performance of the S&P 500 every year since 2003.

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by Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist
Monday, April 19, 2010: Issue #1241

A recent Communiqué column of mine, in which I recommended Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), outraged a number of readers.

Why was it so upsetting? Because – and don’t ask me what they’re smoking – 17% of Americans actually approve of the job Congress is doing.

Taking both parties to task, however, I wrote:

#1: When George W. Bush and his fellow Republicans came to power a little more than nine years ago, they promised to cut wasteful spending, limit the size of government and move closer to a balanced budget.

Instead, they…

• Created a Medicare drug entitlement that will cost nearly $1 trillion in its first decade…
• Started a string of expensive financial bailouts that continues today…
• Passed a record number of earmarks…
• Increased federal spending 58% faster than inflation…
• Presided over a $2.5 trillion increase in the public debt.

#2: Then, last November – anxious for change – voters threw the bums out and put the Democrats in charge. The Democrats promised to change this reckless course and restore fiscal sanity to the country.

Instead, they tripled the budget deficit in their first year. The White House and the Congressional Budget Office now estimate that this year’s deficit will explode to $1.56 trillion – a post-World War II record at 11% of the overall economy – and add $9.7 trillion in debt over the next decade.

Facts vs. Opinions

Here are the other points I made…

#3: The Obama Administration’s own projections see the federal debt hitting $18.5 trillion by 2020. However, that was before the passage of the healthcare reform bill – the biggest new entitlement since the creation of Medicare in 1965.

#4: Unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the prescription drug benefit and the new federal healthcare program have now jumped to $108 trillion, nearly eight times our annual GDP.

#5: Moody’s has threatened to downgrade the Triple-A rating of U.S. sovereign debt, perhaps within three years. A drop in our credit rating would both decrease the perceived safety of Treasury securities and increase the interest that Uncle Sam – excuse me, you, your children and your grandchildren – will pay on the deficit.

#6: Credit Suisse recently produced a report pointing out that the country whose debt profile most resembles that of Greece is – hold your breath – the United States. (If you believe a picture is worth a thousand words, try this: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)

#7: Down the road, Washington – with the reluctant consent of the Federal Reserve – could opt to solve this problem the way so many governments throughout history have – by inflating our way out of it.

Inflation: The Bane of Debt-Holders & A Godsend to Debtors

Inflation is the bane of debt-holders, of course. But it is a godsend to debtors – and Uncle Sam is the biggest of them all – as they can repay fixed obligations with increasingly worthless currency.

What surprised me was not that some readers had a difference of opinion. I always welcome that. It was that respondents uniformly barked that they didn’t want to hear my “political opinions.”

Opinions? Go back through these seven points and tell me which one contains an opinion. Even the last one modestly states that Uncle Sam “could opt” to inflate our way out of this problem.

As Jack Nicholson reminded us in A Few Good Men, some people can’t handle the truth. Especially when it’s something they don’t want to hear.

For example…

• When we warned 11 years ago about the massive bubble in Internet stocks, the majority of respondents gushed about the New Era and insisted we “just didn’t get it.”
• When we warned six years ago about the ominous housing bubble, many scoffed and insisted that home prices “always go up.”
• When we talk today about the threat to your financial security that Washington is creating with its Ponzi-style entitlement schemes, a lot of investors don’t want to hear that, either.

Believe me, I hope I’m wrong. I don’t want high inflation any more than you do.

Fortunately, inflation today is as tame as a kitten.

The Benefits of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities & Three Ways to Buy Them

I only suggest that you buy Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ( TIPS) as an important insurance policy. (Because when inflation – the thief that robs us all – rears its ugly head, neither stocks nor bonds do well.)

You can purchase inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) in three ways…

• Directly ( http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/tips/res_tips_buy.htm).
• Through the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX).
• Through the ETF equivalent – the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (NYSE: TIP).

There are several advantages to buying TIPS…

• TIPS pay interest every six months, just like a regular Treasury bond. But unlike traditional bonds, your principal increases each year by the amount of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). Semi-annual interest payments also increase by the amount of inflation.
• The interest you receive is exempt from state and local (but not federal) income taxes.
• TIPS are less volatile than traditional bonds.
• They’re also excellent diversifiers.

Some investors complain that these securities haven’t done anything exciting lately. Of course not. We’ve been in the grip of disinflationary forces, not inflationary ones – and that won’t change next week or next month.

Protection Against The Government “Doing Something”

But as the deficit keeps expanding and the electorate grows increasingly unhappy, pressure will mount on the government to “do something.”

That “something” could be a decision to inflate our way out of this mess, rather than risk the kind of deflationary spiral that Japan has endured over the past two decades.

Bear in mind…

• The Fed has already taken interest rates close to zero…
• Congress has already tried a massive fiscal stimulus…
• The Federal Reserve has already created trillions out of thin air to mop up worthless securities.

If the economy stumbles again and further government action is taken, it could be even more reckless, resulting in inflation.

In the interest of full disclosure, however, that’s just my opinion.

Good investing,

Alexander Green

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