by Alexander Green, Investment U’s Chief Investment Strategist
Thursday, September 23, 2010: Issue #1351
Investment forecasting is an inherently humbling business.
No matter how many good calls you make, there is always the possibility of getting it wrong the next time. Unexpected events happen. Markets turn on a dime. And an investment advisor often learns – in the cold reality of hindsight – that just when he felt like sticking his chest out he should have been covering his privates instead.
Yet there is a time for celebration too. And there is no denying that The Oxford Club and its members just came through the biggest financial crisis and the nastiest economic downturn in modern history with flying colors.
Perhaps the most surprising part is this: We can’t claim we foresaw how it would all unfold. If we had, we might have told readers to plow their money into bonds before the stock market meltdown and then switch back into stocks at the very bottom.
Unfortunately, there’s only one type of investor who does this consistently. You may have heard of them. They’re called liars.
So how did we succeed when tens of millions of investors stumbled?
Guesswork, Forecasting, Market Timing: Three Things You DON’T Need to Invest Successfully
Our investment system is built on the fundamental premise that to a large extent, the future is unknowable. Seasoned investors agree but then insist, “But of course you have to guess.”
No, you don’t.
We’ve taken the guesswork out of investing. For long-term investors, we use a proprietary asset allocation model, rebalance annually and keep taxes and investment costs to the absolute minimum.
No economic forecasting or market timing required.
Our short-term traders focus on buying great companies that are likely to beat consensus earnings estimates by a wide margin and run trailing stops behind them to protect both their principal and their profits.
How has this worked? You be the judge…
How We Notched a 28% Average Return Amid the Chaos of 2008
2008 was one of the worst years on record for the S&P 500. It posted a return of -38.5%. That caused us to stop out of 45 stocks in our Oxford Trading Portfolio. Here is the entire list. Nothing has been omitted. Although we took some lumps like everyone else that year, the average return on our closed positions was 28.6%.
With the financial crisis unfolding, we set aside our market neutral position. Why? Because you shouldn’t be afraid to aggressively buy or sell when market sentiment and valuations reach extremes. (That means either extreme optimism and sky-high valuations or extreme pessimism and rock-bottom valuations.)
Going into 2009, most investors were scared out of their pants. Stock market players were cashing in their chips. Bank depositors were running down to their local branch to withdraw their savings. The world seemed on the edge of financial collapse. And so did the markets.
Yet the headline on our annual forecast issue was: “Our No. 1 Prediction for 2009: Economic Disaster AND a Soaring Stock Market.”
Bear in mind, almost no one was saying this at the time. But that’s exactly what investors got. While the economic slump only deepened in 2009, the S&P 500 came roaring back – and our recommended stocks outperformed it handily.
If the Market Gives You Lemons… Don’t Get Sour, Just Suck Up Profits
This year we’ve maintained our optimistic stance on equities and have been rewarded with even more big profits.
Yet over the past year and a half, at investment conferences around the world, I’ve heard almost nothing but talk of stagnation, double-dip recession and gallons of gloom and doom.
This week the National Bureau of Economic Research reported that the longest and most severe recession since the Great Depression is over. That doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet. We’re likely to have high unemployment and low economic growth for many months – and perhaps the next three years.
But we’re fully prepared for that, too. In fact, we’re already capitalizing on it. Perhaps that’s why the independent Hulbert Financial Digest ranks our Oxford Club Communiqué among the top investment letters in the nation for 10-year performance.
In short, we’ve taken the lemons the market handed out during the financial crisis and turned it into a Tom Collins with a fruit slice and a maraschino cherry.
If this sounds a little brash, I apologize. But we’ve enjoyed enormous success during the toughest economic period in more than 80 years.
And as Dizzy Dean famously said: “It ain’t bragging if you can do it.”
And if you want to do it, too, consider joining The Oxford Club and we’ll show you exactly how in our five model portfolios.